“Mandalorian” Eyeing Lowest “Star Wars” Debut

Friday afternoon box-office numbers indicate “Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu” is headed for the lowest box-office debut of a major live-action “Star Wars” film.

Thursday night previews and Friday numbers are in with a combined domestic opening day of $34 million – just behind that of “Solo: A Star Wars Story” at $35.3 million. As a result, estimates put the film on track for an $80 million three-day and $90 million four-day haul.

Some suggest the film still has a shot at $100 million for the four-day, especially with audience scores currently clocking higher than critical scores, but it still faces an uphill battle to top the $103 million four-day haul of “Solo” which has held the record of the lowest major “Star Wars” film debut.

The film is still heading for a global debut of around $160 million which. The movie’s production budget sits at $165 million which, combined with a large marketing spend, is expected to bring the film’s break even point up to around $500 million.

It’s not clear if the film will reach that presently but it doesn’t matter too much if it comes in a little shy in this film’s case. A Disney+ bump for past seasons of the show and the company’s “Star Wars” titles in general are already showing, while merchandise sales are expected to be quite profitable for the studio.

The film is expected to hold off “Michael” which is targeting a fifth weekend of $21-25 million for the four days, while Curry Barker’s “Obsession” is heading for a $21 million third place with its three-day take falling just 1% from its debut last weekend.

Source: Deadline