“Mandalorian” Movie Targets $71 Million Debut

The first tracking estimates are in for Disney and Lucasfilm’s “The Mandalorian & Grogu” movie with Box-Office Theory suggesting a domestic debut of at least $71 million over the Friday-Sunday opening weekend.

That’s well in line with some of the year’s biggest openers like “Project Hail Mary” ($80 million), “Michael” (expected to be around $75 million) or “Scream 7” ($63 million), but the lowest opening of the Disney “Star Wars” era – behind “Solo: A Star Wars Story” at $84.4 million.

One difference is that the film is also the cheapest to make of the Disney era, with a previously cited budget of $166 million. Another is that it’s the first family-friendly tentpole since “The Super Mario Galaxy Movie,” as well as having a major IMAX and premium screen.

The only two competitors in May are “The Devil Wears Prada 2,” which will likely open to $70 million three weeks earlier, and “Mortal Kombat II” which is expected to open to $40 million two weeks earlier.

Despite the large fan base, “Star Wars” films aren’t as front-loaded as they seem and can have play over a few weeks depending upon word of mouth. It’s also technically the first “Star Wars” film in cinemas since “The Rise of Skywalker” over six years ago.

In the film, Imperial warlords remain scattered throughout the galaxy, and as the fledgling New Republic works to protect everything the Rebellion fought for, they have enlisted the help of legendary Mandalorian bounty hunter Din Djarin (Pedro Pascal) and his young apprentice Grogu.

Sigourney Weaver and Jeremy Allen White co-star in the film, which opens in cinemas on May 22nd.